By the numbers, 2025 was relentless.

I published 15,516 posts on Political Wire last year — an average of more than 42 posts a day.

Members — who make this site possible — received 531 exclusive posts, plus 52 podcast episodes, 24 issues of Inside Elections, and 12 editions of Ballot Access News — a steady stream of analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

A…

Read more

Order yours here.

Read more

On this day of gratitude, I want to express my sincere thanks to all of you. Political Wire exists because of readers who value independent political reporting and come back day after day for clear, reliable coverage.

I’m deeply grateful that you’ve allowed me to do this work.

If you’ve appreciated the site this year, and if you’re looking forward to our…

Read more

Become a member today and get 20% off.

A message from our partner:

Keep Your SSN Off The Dark Web

Every day, data brokers profit from your sensitive info—phone number, DOB, SSN—selling it to the highest bidder. What happens then? Best case: companies target you with ads. Worst case: scammers and identity thieves breach those brokers, leaving your data vulnerable or on the dark web.

It’s time you check out Incogni. It scrubs your personal data from the web, confronting the world’s data brokers on your behalf. And unlike other services, Incogni helps remove your sensitive information from all broker types, including those tricky People Search Sites.

Help protect yourself from identity theft and spam calls. Try Incogni here and get 55% off your subscription with code POLITICALWIRE.

Donald Trump is already a lame duck. He didn’t even make it a full year into his second term.

After ten months of pushing presidential power to its outer limits, it’s now obvious his power is slipping.

The first real warning sign came in the off-year elections, where county after county — in races for governor, mayor, even city council — swung decisively toward Democrats compared to 2024.

The political class has noticed.

J.D. Vance is openly mulling a 2028 presidential run. Ted Cruz is too. Marjorie Taylor Greene suddenly thinks it’s to her advantage to pick a public fight with Trump. Senate Republicans ignored his demand to kill the filibuster. Indiana and Kansas Republicans brushed off his early redistricting schemes.

And House Republicans — his House Republicans — were about to mount an en masse rebellion to force the release of the Epstein files.

Once a politician enters the lame-duck phase, the drop-off is not gradual. It’s a cliff.

Allies stop investing. Opponents stop fearing. And every fence-sitter recalibrates toward whoever looks like the next source of real power.

History offers almost no examples of someone reversing that trajectory.

Which means Trump doesn’t stabilize from here. He only weakens.

If you’re not already a Political Wire member, get 20% off your first year using the coupon code “shutdown.”

20% off Political Wire

Here’s a quick reminder of everything you’ll get with a Political Wire membership:

• Exclusive political analysis from me and trusted experts.

• A real-time trending news page updated 24/7.

• A clean, ad-free browsing experience of the main news feed.

• The Weekly News Quiz.

• The members-only Trial Balloon podcast.

• Two premium newsletters: Inside Elections and Ballot Access News -- a $267 value.

• The Political Calendar, which is fully syncable with your personal calendar.

Thank you for reading — and supporting independent media!

But first a message from our partner:

Personal Information Removal Made Easy

Every day, marketers, data brokers, and even cybercriminals trade and exploit personal data—everything from your home address to your cell phone number. That’s why I use Incogni, which works quietly in the background to make my personal information hard to find online.

It removes my data from hundreds of databases used by advertisers, scammers, and identity thieves, reducing the chances of targeted phishing attacks or fraud.

The process is completely automated, and it gives me real peace of mind to know my personal information is being scrubbed from the internet. I highly recommend it.

Try Incogni here and get 55% off your subscription with code POLITICALWIRE.

Senators have finally reached a deal to end the government shutdown, with negotiators saying they have “more than enough” Democratic votes to move the agreement forward.

In exchange for reopening the government, Senate Majority Leader John Thune promised Democrats a vote in December to extend key Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire at the end of the year.

But the House has yet to commit to holding its own vote — and there’s no guarantee it ever will.

More than a month ago, I wrote that this shutdown would likely end when Democrats agreed to fund the government in exchange for a vague promise that Republicans would “later discuss” Obamacare subsidies.

That’s exactly what happened.

In the meantime, the costs were enormous. Federal workers went without pay for more than a month. Over 40 million Americans saw their food assistance disrupted. Thousands of airline flights were canceled.

It was all very predictable. History shows the side that uses shutdowns as leverage never wins.

There have been four major shutdowns in the modern era. In each, the party driving the confrontation lost the political battle. No one has ever engineered a strategic shutdown and emerged stronger.

If you’re not already a Political Wire member, get 20% off your first year using the coupon code “shutdown.”

20% off Political Wire

Here’s a quick reminder of everything you’ll get with a Political Wire membership:

• Exclusive political analysis from me and trusted experts.

• A real-time trending news page updated 24/7.

• A clean, ad-free browsing experience of the main news feed.

• The Weekly News Quiz.

• The members-only Trial Balloon podcast.

• Two premium newsletters: Inside Elections and Ballot Access News -- a $267 value.

• The Political Calendar, which is fully syncable with your personal calendar.

Thank you for reading — and supporting independent media!

We discussed what’s behind what is shaping up to be the longest government shutdown in history. And we talked about how it might end. (And we discussed a little baseball too!)

We’re planning to do these conversations on a regular basis — so please let us know what you think!

What Makes This Shutdown Different?

Public opinion on the government shutdown has now calcified along party lines — and that’s the real story.

Neither side is paying a political price anymore.

What used to be a dangerous gamble for both parties has become a reliable, if cynical, rallying tool.

Each base is dug in, convinced its side is right, and the costs of compromise now seem greater than the costs of paralysis.

That’s why the standoff feels different this time. When both sides believe they’re winning, no one has much incentive to end it.

What we’re witnessing is something new in American politics: the collision of two historic forces — extreme polarization and a sprawling administrative state.

Earlier generations had one or the other, but not both.

The modern presidency was built during an era of low partisanship; now it operates in the most divided political climate in more than a century.

This post ran for Political Wire members only earlier this week.

If you’re not already a Political Wire member, get 20% off your first year using the coupon code “shutdown.”

20% off Political Wire

Here’s a quick reminder of everything you’ll get with a Political Wire membership:

• Exclusive political analysis from me and trusted experts.

• A real-time trending news page updated 24/7.

• A clean, ad-free browsing experience of the main news feed.

• The Weekly News Quiz.

• The members-only Trial Balloon podcast.

• Two premium newsletters: Inside Elections and Ballot Access News -- a $267 value.

• The Political Calendar, which is fully syncable with your personal calendar.

Thank you for reading — and supporting independent media!

Read more

If you want more like this — and many other benefits — I invite you to join us. There’s also a special offer below.

Read more

If you want more like this — and many other benefits — I invite you to join us. There’s also a special offer below.

Read more

• Trump’s Shutdown Playbook Is About Unpredictability

• Democrats Could End the Filibuster Right Now

• Democrats Risk Owning the Shutdown

If you want more like this — and many other benefits — I invite you to join us. There’s also a special of…

Read more

I just posted this yesterday for Political Wire members, but I wanted to share it with you.

If you want more like this — and many other benefits — I invite you to join us. There’s also a special offer below.

Read more

If you want more like this — and many other benefits — I invite you to join us. There’s also a special offer below.

Read more

How well did you pay attention to politics over the weekend?

Take the quiz.

Here’s how people are scoring so far. Can you do better?

If you’re a member, you’ll get a quiz like this every Friday.

If you’re no…

Read more

It’s been another very busy day over at Political Wire, so let’s break it down…

A startling security lapse dominated headlines again after it emerged that top Trump administration officials discussed a Yemen airstrike in a private group chat – inadvertently including a reporter. Democrats reacted with outrage, demanding investigations and resignations, w…

Read more

It’s been another crazy day at Political Wire, so let’s break it down…

Today brought a startling reminder of the chaos roiling the Trump administration’s national security team. It emerged that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth accidentally shared detailed war plans for a military strike in Yemen over an insecure group chat – one that included a reporter.

M…

Read more

It’s been another busy day over at Political Wire, so let’s break it down.

President Donald Trump spent Friday pushing aggressive changes across the federal government. His administration moved to strip the Education Department of key functions, shifting the $1.6 trillion student loan program to the Small Business Administration and transferring special …

Read more

It’s been another busy day over at Political Wire, so let’s break it down.

President Trump took a major step today in his drive to consolidate power by moving to dismantle the Department of Education. This unprecedented push – which would normally require Congress to abolish a Cabinet department – is part of a broader second-term strategy to reshape gove…

Read more

It’s been another busy day over at Political Wire, so let’s break it down.

President Trump and his allies launched a broad offensive against their political opponents today. A major news report detailed how the administration is leveraging government powers to hobble Democratic-aligned institutions—from targeting prominent liberal law firms to probing De…

Read more

In 2008, Barack Obama harnessed the “netroots” to piece together a winning coalition of voters to win the presidency.

In 2012, Obama utilized Facebook to dramatically increase turnout of young voters — against all odds — and win re-election.

Fast forward to 2024 and it seems like all the excitement about using digital media shifted to the Republicans.

There’s no doubt that Donald Trump’s use of podcasts and videos to attract low propensity voters helped him win a second term.

, the proprietor of the excellent newsletter, The Red Letter, joined me to discuss this and other topics in a live conversation.

The latest from Political Wire:

Political Wire is a website updated around the clock with the most important political news. Here are the most popular headlines over the last 24 hours:

• Chief Justice Rebukes Trump Over Threat of Impeachment

• GOP Lawmaker Moves to Impeach Judge

• Judge Lashes Out at Trump Administration

• Israel Resumes War in Gaza

• Trump Yanks Secret Service for Hunter and Ashley Biden

• They’re Starting to Figure Out He Had No Plan

• Trump Border Czar Doesn't Care What Judges Think

• Trump Weighs Recognizing Crimea as Russian Territory

• Trump on a Collision Course with the Courts

• Musk Claims Democrats Bought Votes of Illegal Immigrants

Political Wire Members get exclusive analysis, a 24-7 trending news page, bonus newsletters and no advertising on the site.

Subscribe to Political Wire

I talked to the great , the proprietor of the must-read newsletter, about all of these topics this afternoon.

You can watch the video recording above.

Please let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

I’d also encourage you to subscribe to Jessica’s fantastic newsletter, News Not Noise! It’s definitely worth your time.

And if you’re not yet a Political Wire subscriber, use this link to get 20% an annual subscription. You’ll get exclusive analysis from me, a 24/7 trending news page, bonus newsletters and no advertising on the site.

Subscribe to Political Wire

Thank you , , , , and many others for tuning into my live video with !

Join me for my next live video in the app.

Get more from Taegan Goddard in the Substack app

Available for iOS and Android

Get the app