A Few Thoughts on Government Shutdowns
Fighting is fine -- unless you end up worse off than you were before.
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It’s understandable that Democrats want to fight Donald Trump — and a shutdown confrontation is one of the few chances they have. With Senate rules requiring Democratic votes to keep the government open, the temptation is obvious.
But history is merciless on this point: the party that tries to leverage a shutdown always loses.
For more than three decades, shutdown showdowns have followed the same script. One side threatens a closure to extract concessions. The other side demands an unconditional reopening, warning about the damage to federal workers, national security, and ordinary Americans who just want to visit Yellowstone. Public opinion inevitably turns against the side forcing the shutdown.
There have been four major shutdowns in the modern era. In each, the party driving the confrontation lost the political battle. No one has ever engineered a strategic shutdown and emerged stronger.
The only lawmakers pushing for a shutdown this time are Democrats. If the government closes, it will be obvious who caused it.
The result is predictable: Democrats will be tagged with the blame. Their unity will fray as vulnerable members balk. And eventually they’ll settle for a deal that looks worse than what they could have had from the start.
Yes, Trump is a chaotic president who could easily blunder. But unlike other presidents, he really doesn’t care if the government shuts down — and he has already pledged to escalate the pain by laying off thousands of federal workers permanently. That’s why a shutdown could paradoxically revive a president who is already wildly unpopular.
Armed with the megaphone of the presidency, Trump will stage high-visibility closures of national parks, and keep Republicans united behind him. It’s exactly what Barack Obama did during a similar standoff.
And there is zero chance Trump signs a humiliating deal to end a shutdown. Senate Republicans would end the filibuster before that ever happens.
The Democratic urge to fight is completely understandable.
But “fighting” only to end up in a worse position is not strategy — it’s self-defeat.
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