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The government shutdown shows no sign of ending, and there’s little reason to think it will anytime soon.
Democrats and Republicans seem comfortable — even politically motivated — to let the government remain shuttered.
But in truth, there are only three ways this standoff ends:
1. Democrats Cave
This remains the most plausible outcome. History shows the side that uses shutdowns as leverage rarely wins. Americans simply don’t like the tactic, no matter who employs it.
While early polls show most voters blame Donald Trump and Republicans, that’s not typical — and it’s unlikely to last if Democrats continue to block votes. Already, three Democratic senators have defected, suggesting early cracks in party unity.
2. Republicans Offer a Concession
Republicans could promise to revisit the question of extending Obamacare subsidies in the next round of negotiations. But such a concession would be little more than a handshake.
It’s nearly impossible to imagine Trump signing off on anything that looks like a defeat, let alone a policy win for Democrats.
3. Republicans Cave
This is the least likely scenario. It has virtually no modern precedent, and it’s inconsistent with Trump’s political instincts. Trump has made clear he’s unfazed by the shutdown’s damage and sees political advantage in the fight itself.
A deal that gives Democrats any sort of victory would amount to an admission of failure.
In short, this shutdown is most likely headed toward the same conclusion as most before it — just not before both sides, and the country, feel considerably more pain.
What do you think? If you disagree, explain in the comments how your outcome would actually unfold.
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